Leticia Claro Oliveira

Abstract: Several recent studies have investigated if support for Jair Bolsonaro in the presidential election of 2018 is positively associated with COVID-19 infections and deaths in Brazil. In these studies, COVID-19 outcomes in 2020 and 2021 are the dependent variables, and votes for Jair Bolsonaro in the 2018 presidential election (as a proxy for ideology) are the key explanatory variable. This article discusses why ecological research designs are difficult to test empirically. We discuss why correlations between vote shares and COVID-19 outcomes using aggregate data can produce biased inferences, and we specifically focus on measurement error, aggregation bias, and spatial and temporal dynamics.

with Lorena Barberia (USP) · Natália de Paula Moreira (USP) · Rebeca de Jesus Carvalho (USP) · Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa (USP) · Marcela Zamudio (USP)

Abstract: In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions’ duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic time-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population’s mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.

with Lorena G. Barberia (USP) · Luiz G. R. Cantarelli (USP) · Natália de Paula Moreira (USP) · Isabel Seelaender Costa Rosa (USP)

Objective: To test for multicausality between government policy, health outcomes, economic performance, and citizen behavior during the COVID-19 global pandemic. Methods: We perform Granger-causality tests to explore the interrelationship between four endogenous variables, social distancing policy, home isolation, balance rate, and average weekly COVID-19 deaths, in the 26 states of Brazil. As exogenous variables, we included a linear time trend and a dummy for the week in which the World Health Organization (WHO) declared COVID-19 a global pandemic. Results: Our analysis of Granger causal ordering between the four variables demonstrates that there is significant heterogeneity across the Brazilian federation. These findings can be interpreted as underscoring that there is no common model applicable to all states, and that the dynamics are context-dependent. Conclusion: Our suggested approach allows researchers to account for the complex interrelationship between government policy, citizen behavior, the economy, and COVID-related health outcomes.

with Lorena G. Barberia (USP) · Andrea Junqueira (TAMU) · Natália de Paula Moreira (USP) · Guy D. Whitten (TAMU)

(Política Externa e Legislativo no Paraguai do Presidente Lugo)

Introduction: The article assesses the association between political and institutional factors and the capacity of President Lugo to approve his legislative initiatives, disaggregating the analysis by themes of domestic politics and foreign policy. The objective is to investigate, within the framework of a multiparty presidentialism, the hypothesis of the higher likelihood of the National Congress to approve presidential initiatives in foreign policy when compared to those of domestic politics. Material and Methods: The empirical analysis covers all the 839 presidential initiatives carried out between 2008 and 2012. We analyse the approval or rejection of each bill. Results: Through a logistic model, we found a president who is strongly constrained by the Legislative in domestic affairs and another with sufficient conditions to approve the foreign policy agenda. Besides, we find that political and economic factors such as popular approval of the president, unemployment and inflation alter the propensity of the legislative initiative of the president to be approved in the Legislative. Discussion: The proof of the thesis of the two presidents in a multiparty presidentialism with a low institutional propensity to the predomination of the president in the legislative process demonstrates the specificity of foreign policy when compared to domestic politics.

with Pedro Feliu Ribeiro

(As Relações Executivo e Legislativo no Paraguai de Fernando Lugo (2008-2012))

Abstract: This paper analyzes legislative process in The National Congress of Paraguay during Lugo’s administration. The main objective here is to understand the ability of a president to approve an agenda of land reform and social policies facing a majority opposition in parliament. Results indicate two directions. First, strategical state areas such as foreign policy, finances and administration have received a massive support from members of Congress. Second, the president inability to legislate in sensitive electoral themes such as social policy and land reform stresses the troubled relationship between president and congress. The high presidential legislative success did not avoid that the relationship problems with the PLRA, the majority opposition of ANR, UNACE and PPQ, and the lower rate of the presidential approval resulted in a failure of the Lugo’s electoral promises.

with Pedro Feliu Ribeiro (USP)